Rate Trend: Very Volatile:

September 1, 2010: Mortgage rates rose today on the heels of the stock market rise.  the DOW was up over 250 points for the day sending traders selling bonds and buying stocks.  The employment data that will be released on Friday will likely show the direction of the markets for the near term.  The markets have been very volatile in the last few sessions.  This generally means we are in for a big correction.  mortgage rates could have seen the lows.

August 27, 2010:  Mortgage rates rose today after the stock market had a significant rise.  The DOW was up over 160 points for the day as investors sold bonds and bought stocks.  As we have said in our updates many times before mortgage rates go down slow but go up fast.  Today was no exception to that claim.  Many lenders reprised higher today several times as investors decided to get out of bonds and back into stocks.  Will this trend hold?  Time will only tell.

August 20, 2010:  Mortgage rates rose again today as investors continue to take profits in the bond market.  Earlier in the day mortgage rates were slightly lower as the stock market was was weak again.  But in late trading stocks reversed course and mortgage rates followed.  Mortgage rates appear to be on the verge of changing direction in the short term.  Mortgage Rates have dropped too far too fast and this could be a sign of a correction.  We'll watch closely to see if this hold true.

August 19, 2010: Mortgage rates have traded in a tight range to slightly higher over the last few days. No major economic data has driven the market.  Mortgage rates have taken their direction from the stock market.  Investors are waiting to see if the market can stabilize and find some footing.  Any good news on the economy will drive mortgage rates quickly higher.  Our experience has been that mortgage rates go down slow but go up very fast.

Current mortgage rates are at all time lows.  If you are considering mortgage financing now may be the best time in history. 

August 13, 2010: Mortgage Rates were hit very hard on late trading Thursday as investors took profits in the bond market.  With mortgage rates touching new lows investors felt like rates had gone too far too fast.  This caused selling to intensify and mortgage rates rose several times throughout the day.  On Friday the markets were a little calmer and stocks were lower giving bond investors some relief.  With rates at historic lows it is hard to imagine that they could move any lower in the short term.  Time will tell.

August 10, 2010: Mortgage Rates hit an another all time low today as the markets react ton the fed announcement yesterday afternoon.   In the Fed statement released the interest rate markets reacted positively to the news that interest rates would remain low for an extended period of time. The Fed also stated that they would reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage debt back into the Treasury market. 

August 6, 2010:  Mortgage Rates hit an all time low today as disappointing employment data fueled the fears that the economy will continue to be weak.   The US government announced that 131,000 jobs were lost mostly due to the census workers. economists were predicting 87,000 would be lost. The worse news was the revisions for June showed nearly 100K more jobs lost than had been previously reported.  The Unemployment Rate remained steady at 9.5%, just below the 9.6% anticipated. 

Mortgage rates benefited on this very disappointing Jobs Report and rates dropped to the lowest level on record.

August 5, 2010: Mortgage Rates stayed steady today as investors digested the worse than expected reports regarding the employment picture. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose, while retailers reported mixed July same-store sales.  Tomorrows employment data will be key to the near term direction of mortgage rates.

July 26, 2010: Mortgage Rates were little changed today as the stock market moved higher and news of better than expected new homes sales. New home sales rebound in June after having plumbed record lows a month earlier, government data showed Monday. Sales rose 23.6% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 330,000, the Commerce Department reported.

July 24, 2010: Mortgage Rates rose again on Friday as stocks climbed for the second straight day.  Mortgage Bonds are preparing for the $104 Billion in Treasury Notes that will be auction by the US next week.  This additional supply will put pressure on Mortgage Backed Securities and we could see rates rise to attract buyers.

July 22, 2010: Mortgage Rates rose slightly today on the big comeback in stocks.  Yesterday Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee gave traders reason to feel the economy will continue to be weak and that rates are not likely to rise any time soon.  Today better than expected profits at AT&T, Caterpillar and 3M gave the markets reason to sheer.

This seesaw in trading is likely to continue until there is a clear idea of what direction the economy will take.

July 20, 2010: Mortgage Rates were lower in early trading today as the mortgage market took it's direction from stocks.  The DOW was down over 150 points in early afternoon trading and traders were selling stocks and buying bonds.  Driving mortgage rates lower.  But by the close of the markets at 4 pm EST the DOW erased the deficit and ended the day 75 points higher.  This action caused traders to reverse course and sell bonds in late trading.  In the end mortgage rates rose by days ends.

The volatility in the markets is causing large swings during each day.  It appears mortgage rates will continue these up and down swings until the markets find some stability.

July 16, 2010: Mortgage Rates fell today on the heels of weaker consumer sentiment. UMich index fell to 66.5 in early July from 76 in late June as consumers have been worried about weak hiring and a slowly healing economy.  The stock market did not like the news falling over 200 on the DOW by noon.  Mortgage rates are benefiting as investors sell stocks and buy bonds.

July 14, 2010: Mortgage Rates rallied today after yesterdays late day sell off.  Mortgage rates fell on the news that Retail Sales Report came in lower than expected.  Also the The Federal Open Market Committee released its economic forecast on Wednesday, and it was dismal. While the officials are relatively upbeat about growth, they don't see the unemployment rate falling very quickly, nor do they think inflation is going to be a problem any time soon.

July 12, 2010: Mortgage Rates were flat today.  there were no economic reports released and the stock market was relatively quite so mortgage rates were little changed.

July 9, 2010: Mortgage Rates started the day lower but quickly changed direction in late morning trading.  The stock market has traded in a tight range so bonds are doing the same.  The European Central Bank left interest rates at a record low today.  Given the sharp economic slowdown this was not a surprise. Some members of the Executive Board spoke out that the worst of the crisis seems to be over. We'll have to wait and see.

July 8, 2010: Mortgage Rates were steady today after yesterdays rise.  Stocks big gains on Wednesday sent traders selling bonds (higher rates) and buying stocks.  The markets are a little calmer today so mortgage rates are holding steady.

July 6, 2010: Mortgage Rates are flat today despite the rise in stocks.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report came in at 53.8%. This was better than expected and gave mortgage bonds a lift. Until we get more information on the European crisis mortgage rates are likely to stay in a tight trading range.

June 30, 2010:  Mortgage Rates are slightly higher today even as the stock market is down.  many investors feel rates have gone down to far too fast and traders are selling bonds into the long holiday weekend.  The employment data to be released on Friday will also be a driving factor on the direction of mortgage rates.  Stay tuned.

June 29, 2010: Mortgage Rates are steady today after the last few days of dropping to all time lows. Typically on a day when the stock market is down significantly we would see rates drop even further.  But since we are already at all time lows it will take additional weakness in the financial markets to move these historic mortgage rates lower.

June 25, 2010: Mortgage Rates hit yet another all time low this morning as investors once again sold stocks and bought bonds.  Driving rates today was the tame inflation report from the Core PCE and the rumors that the Fed may start another round of buying in the mortgage backed securities market.  This would be great news for rates but adding more debt could be very dangerous for the future.  We see rates staying at this level short term but could rise without much notice.  we have learned over the years that rates drop slowly but go up fast.  if you are in the market for a mortgage now might be the best rate you will see for a very long time.

June 24, 2010: Mortgage Rates hit an all time low this morning as investors once again sold stocks and bought bonds.  In afternoon trading mortgage rates rose slightly as investors braced for the US Treasury Auction of 30 Billion 7-Year Note. The 5-Year Note auction yesterday showed poor results, with weaker than expected foreign buying.  If this occurs today we could see a reversal of bond trading and mortgage rates could drift higher.

June 23, 2010: Mortgage Rates were flat today.  Investors waited to see what the Fed would do with interest rates and as expected they remain unchanged.  The one big change in the Fed statement was the Federal Reserve downgraded its economic outlook due to the impact of the European debt crisis.  Stocks and bonds had little reaction to the news.

June 22, 2010: Mortgage Rates are falling today as investors did not like the news on real estate sales.  Stocks are falling in late trading on the news and mortgage rates followed.  U.S. homes and condominiums sales fell 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.66 million in May despite the boost from a federal tax credit for home buyers.  Some economists think the results on home sales could get worse in the upcoming months as the tax credit incentive goes away at the end of June.

June 21, 2010: Mortgage Rates are little changed today. The big news of the day was China's announcement that they would allow more flexibility in the Yuan.  In the past China has pegged the value of the Yuan to US dollars which allows their imports to be less expensive in the US.  They would offset this by buying US Treasuries.  With this change in Yuan valuation to float in a more natural state against the US Dollar China could also purchase less of our Bonds.  If this holds true all interest rates in the US would rise including mortgages.

June 18, 2010: Mortgage Rates were unchanged today as there was no major economic news and nothing moved the markets from Europe.  We appear to be in a tight trading range as investors wait to see if the news in Europe gets worse or improves.

June 17, 2010: Mortgage rates dipped today as mortgage bond traders cheered economic data released this morning.  The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in May.  This was well below the -0.1% expected by most economists. The core CPI rose 0.1%.

June 16, 2010:  Mortgage rates were steady today.  The markets digested the release of many economic reports.  The Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 0.3% which was better than economists outlook of 0.5% drop.  Taking out food and energy costs, the Core rate rose to 0.2%, above the 0.1% expected.  Also reported today Housing Starts in May were 593,000, well below the 655,000 expected.  This does not give the building industry any signs of recovery.

The best news was that the US Senate approved an amendment to extend closing deadline for homebuyer tax credit to Sept 30 for contracts signed by April 30.

June 14, 2010: Mortgage rates rose slightly today after an up and down day.  Earlier in the day traders were selling bonds (higher rates) on positive news on the Euro.  This changed around 2:30 pm EST when Moody's Investors Service downgraded Greece's government bond ratings to junk in a move that knocked some gains off U.S. stocks.   The ratings agency slashed Greece's sovereign-debt rating by four notches to junk status of Ba1 from A3, reflecting its view of the country's medium-term credit fundamentals.  This gave investors a reason to rethink it's feeling about Europe and they sold stocks and bought bonds.  Mortgage rates ended the day little changed.

June 11, 2010: Mortgage rates are steady today as the markets trade in a very tight range.  No major economic news was released today.  Most investors are waiting for the Fed meeting at the end of June before making any more bets on the direction of the markets.

June 10, 2010: Mortgage rates are higher for the third consecutive day as investors pushed the stock market up over 200 on the Dow in early trading.  The main reason for the rise in stocks is the positive news coming out of Europe.  Also adding to the rise in mortgage rates is the reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech yesterday warning congress that the US budget must be brought under control.  We could be seeing the end of mortgage rates in the 4% to 5% range for a very long time if the budget deficit does not get under control.

June 9, 2010: Mortgage rates are slightly higher again today. No major economic news released all eyes are on Fed Chairman Bernanke as he testifies on Capitol Hill in front of the House Budget Committee.  Yesterday he reported that ho does not see a double-dip recession but he does see a long, slow recovery.  He will likely urge Congress that a detailed plan of how the record high federal budget deficits can be reduced.  The current pace of the deficit could be a major drag on the economy in the future.

June 8, 2010: Mortgage rates are slightly higher today.  Investors are unsure at the current direction of investments and appear to change their minds each day.  The European situation is the major cloud hanging over the markets head.  Without any clear signals that the European situation is under control we will see continued volatility.

June 7, 2010: Mortgage rates are little changed this morning. The markets are still digesting the poor economic report released on Friday.  Economists are trying to determine if the economy can have a sustained recovery without job growth for much longer.  the private sector must start adding jobs or we could fall back into recession.

June 4, 2010: Mortgage rates are lower today as the disappointing news from the US regarding employment and new worries about Europe are driving stocks lower and bonds higher.  The Labor Department reported that 431,000 new jobs were created in May but only 20,000 were private sector jobs.  This was way below the 200,000 jobs that was estimated by most economists.  This bad news with employment and the continued issues in Europe is giving investors reasons to sell stocks.  Bonds are benefiting as there is a flight to safety.

June 3, 2010: Mortgage rates are higher today as investors react to the ADP Employment Report released this morning.  ADP reported 55,000 private sector jobs created,  and revised higher last months report to 65,000 from the 32,000 originally reported.  This is the fourth straight increase that ADP has reported in private-sector jobs.  ADP's report does not include government workers which is why this number is well below the forecasted 500,000 new jobs that most economists have for tomorrows jobs figures.  If the estimates are correct we could finally see some positive news in the employment sector.  If this happens mortgage rates are poised to rise as the economy moves out of recession.

June 2, 2010: Mortgage rates are little changed today as investors wait to see the direction of the stock market.  Yesterdays late day sell off of stocks gave support to bonds but did not move the mortgage market.  Homes sales were up 6% slightly above expectations.

May 25, 2010: It was a wild ride today as stocks opened significantly lower this morning giving mortgage rates more reason to fall.  But the stock market rallied by the end of the day just closing down 22 on the DOW and only 3 down for the NASDAQ.  Mortgage rates went along for the ride as they rose in late trading.  right now it looks like mortgage rates (bonds) will take their lead from stocks until the Europe situation gets some sense of stabilization.  In the mean time we are in for a rocky ride.

May 24, 2010: Mortgage rates rose slightly today as the European Crisis continues to drive the market.  In early trading stocks were lower and bonds were higher (lower rates) but that quickly reversed around noon today. No major economic news released today.  Mortgage rates will be effected by the Treasury auctions this week.  On Tuesday the Treasury will auction $42B of 2-Year T Notes, Wednesday they will auction $40B of 5-Year Notes and $31B of 7-Years on Thursday.  A good demand for these instruments could help keep rates down at historic levels.

May 21, 2010: Mortgage rates are rising today as the stock market started lower but turned positive in late morning trading.  The DOW was down almost 150 points but reversed course and is up 80 points at 2 pm EST.  Stocks have declined 10% from their highs which can be seen as a correction.  If stocks can stay in positive territory over the next week we could see a reversal and stocks price will rise and bonds should fall (higher rates).

May 19, 2010: Mortgage rates are steady today.  All eyes are on the stock market to see if the selling will continue.  Bonds have benefited from the weakness in the stock market over the fears in Europe.

May 18, 2010: Mortgage rates continue to fall as investors sell stocks and buy bonds.  The higher demand for bonds has pushed rates back to historic levels. Also pushing rates lower is the better than expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report released this morning.  The report showed inflation at the wholesale level was tame in April at -0.1%.  Core PPI rose 0.2%.  Lower stocks and and positive inflation news is helping push rates back to all time lows.

May 12, 2010:  Mortgage rates are flat today. Investors are waiting for the results of the 24 Billion 10-Year T Note auction today.  The 3-Year Note auction held yesterday showed okay results. 

Europe continues to make news and influence the US markets.  Today Spain said they helped narrow their budget deficit by increasing their austerity measures.  Meantime Germany showed a higher than expected rise in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  Positive news from Europe is helping push stocks higher and slight pressure on bonds.  

May 10, 2010: Mortgage rates rose today after last weeks drop.  The stock market rallied on the news that the situation in Greece is getting the EU leaders' attention.  They announced that they are resolved in getting the situation under control.  This gave investors reason to cheer and the DOW rose 400 points on the news.  Mortgage bonds sold on the news and rates rose for the first time in 3 sessions.

May 7, 2010: What else can you but WOW!  Yesterday was one of the craziest days we have seen in our 26 years in the mortgage business.  In the span of an hour mortgage rates dropped .25% and rose .25%.  Obviously the bond market was reacting to the almost 1000 point drop of the DOW.  In the matter of 20 minutes the DOW dropped over 600 points.  was it a glitch or nervous investors?  Everyone is trying to decide. So far today the markets are a little calmer.  We'll have to see what course rates and stocks take from here.

May 5, 2010: Mortgage rates were steady today after yesterdays fall.  Investors waited all day to see if the stock market would reverse course but late in the day stocks closed down again.  Friday's employment numbers for April will likely be bigger than normal with all the uncertainty lately.

May 4, 2010:  Weakness in stocks is giving bonds a reason to rise driving down mortgage rates. The stock market does not appear to be impressed with the Greek bailout, or Greece's ability to avert a future debt crisis. Furthermore, the concern now turns to the others in the Euro zone like Spain and Portugal, which are huge in comparison.  Further weakness in stocks could push rates lower. 

April 30, 2010:  Mortgage rates dropped today on the heels of the stock market sell-off and the lower than expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading.  The government announced that the US economy grew at 3.2% for the first quarter of 2010.  Most economists were estimating the number to come in slightly higher at 3.3%.  Also in the report the Core Inflation Rate 0.6% in the 4th quarter of 2009.  This was better than expected.

Mortgage rates moved lower on these reports and stocks had one of their worst days in months.  Investors will be looking to see if the markets can rebound on Monday.

April 29, 2010: Mortgage rates are little changed today after yesterdays rise.  Investors waited to see if the Fed would maintain their stance on interest rates yesterday and as expected there was no change in rates or in the Fed statement.  The Fed appears to still be waiting to see signs that the economy is on solid footing and there is no chance of it falling back into recession before raising rates.

April 27, 2010: Mortgage rates fell today as the stock market plunged over 200 points on the DOW.  Also driving mortgage rates lower was a "flight to quality" as investors were disappointed by Standard & Poors downgrade of Greece and Portugal due to debt concerns.  typically when there is global financial issue investors will but bonds as a safe haven until the weakness disappears.  Because of this investors sold stocks and purchased bonds pushing mortgage rates lower.

April 23, 2010: Mortgage rates rose today as investors sold bonds (rates higher) and bought stocks higher.  Also on the minds of investors is the huge Treasury Auction next week and the FOMC meeting.  If the demand for US Treasuries drops and if the FOMC changes their stance on interest rates mortgage rates could continue their climb higher.

April 21, 2010: Mortgage rates were slightly lower today. There were no economic reports released today so investors took their direction from stocks. Corporate earnings have been better than excepted but stocks have been in a small narrow trading range the last 4 sessions.  it could be that stocks have risen too far too fast and investors are looking for a small pull back.  This could help mortgage rates in the short term.

April 16, 2010: Weakness in stocks today drove investors back to mortgage backed securities as mortgage rates dropped.  Mortgage rates have come back down slightly after a big rise earlier in the week.  Any continued weakness in stocks next week could help move rates lower.

April 12, 2010: Mortgage rates are steady again today.  There are no economic reports to be released so the mortgage bond market will take it's direction from stocks.  The European finance ministers approved a $40 Billion dollar bailout of Greece today.  Typically bonds would react negatively to this news but so far have not.  We will continue to watch the developments and report back.

April 9, 2010: Mortgage rates were steady today.  Investors pushed stocks above 11,000 on the DOW giving a push to sell bonds (higher rates) and buy stocks.  It will be interesting to see if the climb in stocks can continue.  if it does mortgage rates will likely follow

April 7, 2010: Mortgage rates have risen .375% in the last 6 trading days.  As we expected the end of the Fed's purchasing program of Mortgage Backed Securities has left a shortage of buyers for mortgage bonds.  In order to attract more buyers yields have risen.  This week the Fed will Auction almost $65 Billion in new US Treasuries.  If the demand for these are weak rates will continue their climb higher.

March 30, 2010: Mortgage rates are higher today as investors brace for the important jobs data to be released on Friday. Most economists believe 190,000 job were created in March but there has been some chatter that the number could come in as high as 300,000 jobs created.  If true this would be good for the economy but very bad news for mortgage rates.

March 26, 2010: Mortgage rates were flat today after three straight days of higher rates.  Investors were digesting the current rise in rates and the anticipation of the Fed ending it's purchasing of mortgage securities over the last 12 months.  If supply and demand ring true mortgage rates should see additional increases over the next few weeks.

March 25, 2010: Mortgage rates are on the rise again today after a second day of selling in the bond market.  The Treasury Department sold $32 billion in 7-year notes today at a yield of 3.374%, higher than traders anticipated. Bidders offered to buy $2.61 for every $1 of debt being sold, compared to an average of $2.83 at the last four sales, all for the same amount. Despite the higher demand for the securities mortgage rates rose for a second straight day.

March 24, 2010: Mortgage rates rose several times today as investors sold bonds after a poor treasury Auction. The Treasury Department sold $42 billion in 5-year notes at 2.605%, higher than traders had anticipated.   Bidders offered to buy 2.55 times the amount debt being sold, the lowest demand since September.  The low demand for Treasuries and additional news about Portugal's debt problems send mortgage rates higher.

March 18, 2010: Mortgage rates flat today. Investors are digesting the economic news released this morning.   Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February was reported at 0.0%,  below expectations supporting the Fed’s statement that inflation remains calm for now.   The Core CPI, (no food and energy) was inline with expectations.  Mortgage rates have stayed flat after the news.

March 10, 2010: Mortgage rates flat today.  Traders are waiting for the Fed statement to be released at 2:15 pm EST. The release of the Fed Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement will be closely watched to see if there is any change to the Fed Funds Rate of 0 – 0.25%.   The biggest question is if the Fed Statement will change the use of the statement, "rates will stay exceptionally low for an extended period.”   Any change to these words could send the bond market higher.

March 10, 2010: Mortgage rates are rising today.  There are no economic reports to be released today but investors are waiting to see what the results of the $21Billion 10-Year Note auction results are later today  Yesterday's 3-Year Note auction went better than expected so rates will likely react to the news on how the longer duration  10-Year Note sale goes today.

March 9, 2010: Mortgage rates are steady again today.  Investors were waiting to see what the demand for the 3-year note auction today.  The Treasury Department sold $40 billion in 3-year notes on Tuesday at a yield of 1.437%, a little lower than traders had anticipated.  earlier rates were moving higher but when investors saw the demand was high for the 3-year auction rates reversed course and are unchanged from yesterday.

March 8, 2010: Mortgage rates wee steady today.  There was not any economic reports released today so mortgage rates took their direction from the stock market.  It was a mild day as stocks ended up mixed with the DOW down 14 and the NASDAQ up 6.  The markets have a lot of economic reports to digest over the next few days so the markets will be moving.

March 5, 2010: Mortgage rates were higher today as the US Jobs Report was better than expected.  33,000 jobs were lost in February with the unemployment rate holding steady at 9.7%.  Also the previous two months were revised downward (better) showing 35,000 fewer jobs lost.  this was well received by the stock market and poorly viewed by the bond market.  Stocks rose and bonds fell raising interest rates.

March 4, 2010:  Mortgage rates are flat today as most investors are waiting on the unemployment numbers to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 am EST.   Most economists are forecasting a job loss of approximately 20,000 in February.  that number has changed over the month since we have seen some forecasts for a gain of 55,000 jobs to now expecting a loss of 65,000 jobs.  Today we see in reports some rumors  that the number may show more than 100,000 jobs lost. 

This is the first time in some months that we have seen such a wide range of forecasts for the most important economic data released each month. With all the uncertainty we believe mortgage rates will react negatively no matter where the number comes in.  Stay tuned tomorrow will be very interesting.

March 3, 2010: Mortgage rates have been on a roller coaster ride today.  Rates were higher this morning after the ADP Employment Report showed 20,000 jobs lost in February.  This is what most economists are forecasting for the actual number that will released on Friday.  The bad news in the report was the revision of January's numbers downward.  The report showed a loss of 60,000 jobs which was originally reported as 22,000 jobs lost.

Mortgage rates turned lower in early afternoon trading on encouraging news from Greece and comments made by a member of the Fed, Lockhart He believes a modest recovery will leave inflation tame and that the fed funds target rate will remain exceptionally low.

March 2, 2010: Mortgage rates are higher today as investors buy stocks and sell bonds.  The stock market is advancing on news regarding the Greece situation.  The Greek government said they will reduce spending and increased tax rates to try and lower the budget deficit. Included in these measures a freeze on public wages, an increase in retirement age, and a fuel tax.  Stocks like the news and as a result investors are selling bonds driving mortgage rates higher.